Inkomba yokuqala neyinhloko kulabo abahlola amathuba inani labantu, okunquma ubukhulu bemakethe ephelele ekwazi ukubhekelwa kuyo (i-TAM). Yingakho izinkampani zikhangwe yiShayina kanye nabo bonke labo bathengi.
Ngaphezu kobukhulu obuphelele, ukwakheka kweminyaka yabantu, imali engenayo kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zokusetshenziswa eziqinile nezingapheli, kanye nezinye izici nakho kuthinta isidingo se-resin yepulasitiki.
Kodwa ekugcineni, ngemva kokuhlola zonke lezi zici, eyodwaihlukanisa isidingo ngenani labantu ukuze ibalweisidingo somuntu ngamunye, inani elibalulekile lokuqhathanisa izimakethe ezahlukene.
Izazi zezibalo zabantu seziqalile ukucabanga kabusha ngokukhula kwenani labantu esikhathini esizayo futhi ziphetha ngokuthi inani labantu emhlabeni lizokhuphuka ngokushesha nangokwehla ngenxa yokwehla kokuzala e-Afrika kanye nokuzala okuphansi eShayina nakwamanye amazwe ambalwa angase angaphinde alulame. Lokhu kungaphazamisa ukucabanga kanye nokuguquguquka kwemakethe yomhlaba wonke.
Inani labantu baseShayina likhule lisuka ezigidini ezingu-546 ngo-1950 laya ku-1.43 billion esemthethweni ngo-2020. Inqubomgomo yomntwana oyedwa yango-1979-2015 yaholela ekunciphiseni ukuzala, isilinganiso sabesilisa nabesifazane esichemile kanye nokwanda kwabantu, kanti iNdiya manje isithatha indawo yeShayina njengesizwe esinabantu abaningi kakhulu.
I-United Nations ilindele ukuthi inani labantu baseShayina lizokwehla liye ku-1.26 billion ngo-2050 kanye nezigidi ezingu-767 ngo-2100. Lokhu kwehle ngezigidi ezingu-53 kanye nezigidi ezingu-134 ngokulandelana, uma kuqhathaniswa nezilinganiso zangaphambilini ze-UN.
Ukuhlaziywa kwakamuva okwenziwe yizazi zezibalo zabantu (iShanghai Academy of Sciences, iVictoria University of Australia, njll.) kungabaza ukuqagela kwabantu ngemuva kwalokhu kuqagela futhi kulindele ukuthi inani labantu baseShayina lingase lehle liye ku-1.22 billion ngo-2050 kanye nezigidi ezingu-525 ngo-2100.
Imibuzo ngezibalo zokuzalwa
Isazi sezibalo zabantu uYi Fuxian eNyuvesi yaseWisconsin ubuze izibikezelo mayelana nenani labantu baseShayina abakhona kanye nendlela engaba khona yokuya phambili. Uhlole idatha yabantu baseShayina futhi wathola ukungafani okucacile nokuvame ukwenzeka, njengokungahambisani phakathi kokuzalwa okubikiwe kanye nenani lemithi yokugomela izingane enikezwayo kanye nokubhaliswa esikoleni samabanga aphansi.
Lokhu kufanele kufane, futhi akunjalo. Abahlaziyi babona ukuthi kunezisusa ezinamandla zohulumeni basekhaya zokwandisa idatha. Uma sicabanga nge-Occam's Razor, incazelo elula ukuthi ukuzalwa akuzange kwenzeke.
U-Yi uthi inani labantu baseShayina ngo-2020 laliyizigidigidi ezingu-1.29, hhayi izigidigidi ezingu-1.42, okuyinani eliphansi labantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-130. Isimo sibi kakhulu enyakatho-mpumalanga yeShayina lapho injini yezomnotho ime khona. U-Yi wacabanga ukuthi ngesilinganiso sokuzala esiphansi - u-0.8 uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga lokushintsha elingu-2.1 - inani labantu baseShayina lizokwehla liye ku-1.10 billion ngo-2050 kanye nezigidi ezingu-390 ngo-2100. Qaphela ukuthi unesinye isibalo esibi nakakhulu.
Sibone ezinye izilinganiso zokuthi inani labantu baseShayina lingaba ngaphansi ngezigidi ezingama-250 kunalokho okubikiwe njengamanje. IShayina ibiza cishe u-40% wesidingo sama-resin epulasitiki emhlabeni wonke futhi ngenxa yalokho, ikusasa elihlukile eliphathelene nenani labantu kanye nezinye izici lithonya kakhulu ukuguquguquka kwesidingo sama-resin epulasitiki emhlabeni jikelele.
Isidingo samanje sama-resin ngomuntu ngamunye eShayina njengamanje siphezulu kakhulu uma siqhathaniswa nezomnotho eziningi ezithuthukile, umphumela wokuqukethwe kwepulasitiki kokuthunyelwa kwezimpahla eziqediwe kanye nendima yeShayina "njengefektri emhlabeni". Lokhu kuyashintsha.
Sethula izimo
Sinalokhu engqondweni, sihlole ezinye zezinkolelo zikaYi Fuxian futhi sakha isimo esihlukile mayelana nekusasa elingase libe khona lesidingo sabantu baseShayina kanye nepulasitiki. Njengesisekelo sethu, sisebenzisa izilinganiso ze-UN zango-2024 mayelana nesibalo sabantu baseShayina.
Lokhu kuqagela kwakamuva kwe-UN kwabantu baseShayina kubuyekezwe kwehliswa kusukela ekuhlolweni kwangaphambilini. Sabe sesisebenzisa ukuqagela kwakamuva kwesizindalwazi se-ICIS Supply & Demand kuya ku-2050.
Lokhu kubonisa isidingo sama-resin amakhulu eShayina ngomuntu ngamunye – i-acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), i-polyethylene (PE), i-polypropylene (PP), i-polystyrene (PS) kanye ne-polyvinyl chloride (PVC) – sikhuphuka sisuka cishe ku-73kg ngo-2020 saya ku-144kg ngo-2050.
Siphinde sahlola isikhathi ngemva kuka-2050 futhi sacabanga ukuthi isidingo sama-resin ngomuntu ngamunye sizokhuphuka siye ku-150kg ngawo-2060 ngaphambi kokunciphisa ngasekupheleni kwekhulu leminyaka - siye ku-141kg ngo-2100 - ushintsho kanye nomzila ojwayelekile wezomnotho okhulayo. Isibonelo, isidingo se-US ngomuntu ngamunye salezi resin safinyelela ku-101kg ngo-2004.
Kwesinye isimo, sicabange ukuthi inani labantu lango-2020 lalingu-1.42 billion, kodwa izinga lokuzala eliya phambili lizoba ngu-0.75 wokuzalwa, okuzoholela ekutheni inani labantu lango-2050 libe ngu-1.15 billion kanye nenani labantu abangu-2100 libe ngu-373 million. Lesi simo sibize ngokuthi i-Dire Demographics.
Kulesi simo, sicabange nokuthi ngenxa yezinselele zomnotho, isidingo sama-resin sizovuthwa kusenesikhathi futhi sibe sezingeni eliphansi. Lokhu kusekelwe ekutheni iShayina ingaphunyuki esimweni semali engenayo ephakathi iye emnothweni othuthukile.
Ukuguquguquka kwezenhlalo kunikeza izithiyo eziningi kakhulu kwezomnotho. Kulesi simo, iShayina ilahlekelwa isabelo somkhiqizo womhlaba wonke ngenxa yezinhlelo zokuvuselela ezinye izizwe kanye nokungezwani kwezohwebo, okuholela ekudingweni okuphansi kwama-resin okuvela kokuqukethwe kwepulasitiki okuphansi - uma kuqhathaniswa nesisekelo - ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla eziqediwe.
Siphinde sicabange ukuthi umkhakha wezinsizakalo uzozuza njengesabelo somnotho waseShayina. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinkinga zempahla nezikweletu zithinta ukuguquguquka komnotho kuze kube yi-2030. Izinguquko zesakhiwo ziyaqhubeka. Kulokhu, sibonise isidingo se-resin ngomuntu ngamunye njengokukhuphuka kusuka ku-73kg ngo-2020 kuya ku-101kg ngo-2050 futhi sifinyelele ku-104kg.
Imiphumela yezimo
Ngaphansi kweSigaba Esiyisisekelo, isidingo sama-resin amakhulu sikhuphuka sisuka kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-103.1 ngo-2020 futhi siqala ukuvuthwa ngawo-2030, sifinyelele kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-188.6 ngo-2050. Ngemuva kuka-2050, inani labantu eliwayo kanye nokuguquguquka kwemakethe/kwezomnotho okuthuthukayo kuthinta kabi isidingo, esiwela kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-89.3 ngo-2100. Leli yizinga elihambisana nesidingo sangaphambi kuka-2020.
Njengoba kunombono ongemuhle kakhulu ngenani labantu kanye nokwehla kwamandla omnotho ngaphansi kwesimo se-Dire Demographics, isidingo sama-resin amakhulu sikhuphuka sisuka kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-103.1 ngo-2020 futhi siqala ukuvuthwa ngawo-2030, sifinyelele kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-116.2 ngo-2050.
Njengoba inani labantu lincipha kanye nokuguquguquka komnotho okubi, isidingo sehla saya kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-38.7 ngo-2100, izinga elihambisana nesidingo sangaphambi kuka-2010.
Imiphumela yokwaneliseka kanye nokuhweba
Kunemiphumela yokuzimela kwama-resin epulasitiki aseShayina kanye nebhalansi yayo yokuhweba ehlanzekile. Esimweni Esiyisisekelo, ukukhiqizwa kwe-resin enkulu yaseShayina kukhuphuka kusuka kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-75.7 ngo-2020 kuya kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-183.9 ngo-2050.
I-Base Case iphakamisa ukuthi iShayina isalokhu ingumthengisi we-resin omkhulu, kodwa isikhundla sayo sokungenisa sisuka kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-27.4 ngo-2020 saya kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-4.7 ngo-2050. Sigxila kuphela esikhathini esiya ku-2050.
Phakathi naleso sikhathi esiseduze, ukunikezwa kwama-resin kuqhubeka kakhulu njengoba kuhlelwe njengoba iShayina ihlose ukuzimela. Kodwa ngawo-2030, ukwanda kwamandla kuyehla emakethe yomhlaba wonke ephakelwa ngokweqile kanye nokwanda kokungezwani kwezohwebo.
Ngenxa yalokho, ngaphansi kwesimo se-Dire Demographics, ukukhiqizwa kwanele kakhulu futhi ekuqaleni kwawo-2030 iShayina ifinyelela ukuzimela kulezi zinhlayiya futhi ivele njengomthengisi ophelele wamathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.6 ngo-2035, amathani ayizigidi ezingu-7.1 ngo-2040, amathani ayizigidi ezingu-9.7 ngo-2045 kanye namathani ayizigidi ezingu-11.6 ngo-2050.
Njengoba kunezinhlobo zabantu ezimbi kakhulu kanye nokuguquguquka kwezomnotho okuyinselele, ukuzimela kanye nesikhundla sokuthumela ngaphandle kufinyelelwa ngokushesha kodwa "kuyaphathwa" ukuze kuncishiswe ukungezwani kwezohwebo.
Vele, sibheke ngokucophelela i-demografi, ikusasa lokuzala okuphansi nokunciphayo. “I-demografi iyisiphetho”, njengoba kusho isazi sefilosofi saseFrance sekhulu le-19 u-Auguste Comte. Kodwa isiphetho asikamiswa. Lesi yikusasa elilodwa elingenzeka.
Kunezinye ikusasa ezingaba khona, okuhlanganisa nalezo lapho amazinga okuzala ebuya khona kanye negagasi elisha lokusungula izinto ezintsha kwezobuchwepheshe lihlangana ukuze kuthuthukiswe umkhiqizo kanye nokukhula komnotho. Kodwa isimo esivezwe lapha singasiza izinkampani zamakhemikhali ukuthi zicabange ngokungaqiniseki ngendlela ehlelekile futhi zenze izinqumo ezithinta ikusasa lazo - ekugcineni zibhale indaba yazo.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Julayi-05-2025
