ISIQINISEKISO SOKUQALA KANYE nesibalulekile salabo abahlola ithuba inani labantu, elinquma usayizi wesamba semakethe ekwazi ukulungiseka (TAM). Kungakho izinkampani ziye zakhangwa yiChina nabo bonke labo bathengi.
Ngaphezu kobukhulu obuphelele, ukwakheka kweminyaka yabantu, imali engenayo kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zokusetshenziswa kokugcina ezihlala phansi nezingahlali isikhathi eside, nezinye izici nazo zithinta isidingo se-plastic resin.
Kodwa ekugcineni, ngemva kokuhlola zonke lezi zici, eyodwaihlukanisa isidingo ngenani labantu ukuze kubalweisidingo somuntu ngamunye, inani elibalulekile lokuqhathanisa izimakethe ezahlukene.
Izazi zabantu seziqalile ukucabanga kabusha ngokwanda kwenani labantu esikhathini esizayo futhi baphetha ngokuthi inani labantu emhlabeni lizokhuphuka ngokushesha nakancane ngenxa yokuncipha kokuzala e-Afrika kanye nokuzala okuphansi eChina nakwezinye izizwe ezimbalwa okungenzeka zingaphinde zilulame. Lokhu kungase kukhuphule ukucabanga nezimakethe zomhlaba jikelele.
Isibalo sabantu baseShayina sikhule sisuka ezigidini ezingama-546 ngo-1950 saya kwesikhulu esisemthethweni esiyizigidigidi eziyi-1.43 ngo-2020. Umgomo wokuthola ingane eyodwa ka-1979-2015 waholela ekwehleni kokuzala, isilinganiso esisontekile sabesilisa nabesifazane kanye nokwanda kwenani labantu, njengoba manje iNdiya ithatha indawo yaseChina njengezwe elinabantu abaningi.
IZizwe Ezihlangene zilindele ukuthi inani labantu baseShayina lehle lifike ku-1.26 billion ngo-2050 kanye nezigidi ezingu-767 ngo-2100. Lezi zehle ngezigidi ezingu-53 kanye nezigidi ezingu-134, ngokulandelana, kusukela ekuqaguleni kwangaphambili kwe-UN.
Ukuhlaziya kwakamuva okwenziwa yizazi zabantu (i-Shanghai Academy of Sciences, i-Victoria University yase-Australia, njll) zibuza ukuqagela kwezibalo zabantu ngemuva kwalokhu kuqagela futhi zilindele ukuthi inani labantu base-China lingehla lifinyelele ezigidini eziyi-1.22 ngo-2050 kanye nezigidi ezingu-525 ngo-2100.
Imibuzo ngezibalo zokuzalwa
Isazi sezibalo zabantu u-Yi Fuxian eNyuvesi yaseWisconsin ubuze ukuqagela mayelana nenani labantu baseShayina elikhona kanye nendlela engase iqhubekele phambili. Uhlole idatha yezibalo zabantu baseShayina futhi wathola ukungafani okucacile nokuvamile, njengokungahambelani phakathi kokuzalwa okubikiwe kanye nenani lemithi yokugoma izingane enikezwayo kanye nokubhaliswa esikoleni samabanga aphansi.
Lezi kufanele zihambisane, futhi azifani. Abahlaziyi babona ukuthi kunezisusa eziqinile zokuthi ohulumeni basekhaya bakhuphule idatha. Ibonisa iRazor ka-Occam, incazelo elula ukuthi ukuzalwa akuzange kwenzeke.
U-Yi ubeka ukuthi inani labantu baseChina ngo-2020 laliyizigidigidi eziyi-1.29, hhayi ibhiliyoni elingu-1.42, okuyisibalo esingaphansi kwezigidi eziyi-130. Isimo sishubile kakhulu enyakatho-mpumalanga yeChina lapho injini yezomnotho imile khona. U-Yi uqagele ukuthi ngamanani aphansi enzalo - 0.8 uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga lokushintshwa elingu-2.1 - inani labantu baseShayina lizokwehla liye ku-1.10 bhiliyoni ngo-2050 kanye nezigidi ezingu-390 ngo-2100. Qaphela ukuthi unokunye ukubikezela okungenathemba nakakhulu.
Sizibonile ezinye izilinganiso zokuthi inani labantu baseShayina lingaba ngaphansi kwezigidi ezingama-250 kunalokhu okubikwayo njengamanje. I-China ithatha cishe u-40% wesidingo sezinhlaka zepulasitiki emhlabeni wonke futhi ngenxa yalokho, elinye ikusasa eliphathelene nenani labantu kanye nezinye izici nomthelela omkhulu ekudingeni kwezinto eziphilayo emhlabeni jikelele.
Isidingo samanje sama-resin e-China nge-capita per capita njengamanje siphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa nezomnotho ezithuthuke kakhulu, umphumela wokuqukethwe kwepulasitiki kokuthunyelwa kwempahla eqediwe kanye nendima yeChina “njengefekthri emhlabeni”. Lokhu kuyashintsha.
Sethula izimo
Sinalokhu engqondweni, sihlole eminye yemibono ka-Yi Fuxian futhi sakha esinye isimo esiphathelene nekusasa elingaba khona lesidingo sabantu baseChina namapulasitiki. Ngokwesisekelo sethu, sisebenzisa ukuqagela kwe-UN ka-2024 kubantu baseChina.
Lokhu kuqagela kwakamuva kwe-UN kwabantu baseShayina kwabuyekezwa kwehle kusukela ekuhloleni kwangaphambilini. Sibe sesisebenzisa ukuqagela kwakamuva kwe-ICIS Supply & Demand database kuya ku-2050.
Lokhu kukhombisa i-China per capita main resins demand - acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) - ekhuphuka isuka cishe ku-73kg ngo-2020 yaya ku-144kg ngo-2050.
Siphinde sahlola isikhathi sangemva kuka-2050 futhi sacabanga ukuthi isidingo se-resin yomuntu ngamunye sizokhuphuka sifinyelele ku-150kg ngeminyaka yo-2060 ngaphambi kokulinganisa ngasekupheleni kwekhulu leminyaka - kuya ku-141kg ngo-2100 - uguquko kanye nomkhondo ojwayelekile weminotho ekhulayo. Isibonelo, isidingo se-US ngomuntu ngamunye salawa ma-resin safinyelela ku-101kg ngo-2004.
Kwesinye isimo, sicabange ukuthi inani labantu bango-2020 laliyizigidigidi eziyi-1.42, kodwa izinga lokuzala eliqhubekela phambili lizoba yisilinganiso sokuzalwa kwabantu abangu-0.75, okuzoholela esibalweni sabantu esingu-2050 esiyizigidigidi eziyi-1.15 kanye nenani labantu abangu-2100 abayizigidi ezingama-373. Sibize isimo nge-Dire Demographics.
Kulesi simo, siphinde sacabanga ukuthi ngenxa yezinselelo zezomnotho, ukufunwa kwama-resin kuzovuthwa ngokushesha futhi ezingeni eliphansi. Lokhu kusekelwe ekutheni izwe laseShayina aliphunyuki esimweni semali engenayo emaphakathi liye emnothweni othuthukile.
I-demographic dynamics ihlinzeka ngezimo zezomnotho eziningi kakhulu. Kulesi simo, i-China ilahlekelwa isabelo sokukhiqiza emhlabeni jikelele ngenxa yezinhlelo zamanye amazwe zokuhlehlisa kabusha kanye nokungezwani kwezohwebo, okuholela ekwehleni kwesidingo sezinhlaka ezivela kumapulasitiki okuqukethwe okuphansi - uma kuqhathaniswa nesisekelo - ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla eziqediwe.
Siphinde sicabange ukuthi umkhakha wezinsizakalo uzozuza njengesabelo somnotho waseShayina. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izindaba zempahla nezikweletu zinesisindo ekuguquguqukeni komnotho kuze kufike kuma-2030s. Izinguquko zesakhiwo ziyaqhubeka. Kulokhu, senze imodeli yesidingo se-capita resin njengoba sikhuphuka sisuka ku-73kg ngo-2020 safinyelela ku-101kg ngo-2050 futhi sakhuphuka ngo-104kg.
Imiphumela yezimo
Ngaphansi kwe-Base Case, isidingo sezinhlaka ezinkulu sikhuphuka sisuka kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-103.1 ngo-2020 futhi siqala ukuvuthwa ngeminyaka yawo-2030s, sifinyelele kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-188.6 ngo-2050. Ngemuva kuka-2050, ukwehla kwesibalo sabantu kanye nokuguquguquka kwemakethe/ukuguquguquka kwezomnotho kwehla kakhulu kuye kwaba nomthelela omubi kubantu abangu-09. izinga elihambisana nesidingo sangaphambi kuka-2020.
Ngokubuka okungenathemba okwengeziwe ngesibalo sabantu kanye nokunciphisa amandla ezomnotho ngaphansi kwesimo se-Dire Demographics, isidingo esikhulu se-resin sikhuphuka sisuka kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-103.1 ngo-2020 futhi siqala ukuvuthwa ngeminyaka yama-2030s, sifinyelela kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-116.2 ngo-2050.
Ngenani labantu elihlayo kanye nokuguquguquka kwezomnotho okubi, isidingo sehlela kumathani ayizigidi ezingama-38.7 ngo-2100, izinga elihambisana nesidingo sangaphambi kuka-2010.
Imithelela yokuzanelisa kanye nohwebo
Kunomphumela wokuthi i-China plastic resins ikwazi ukuzimela kanye nebhalansi yayo yokuhweba yonke. Ku-Base Case, ukukhiqizwa kwenhlaka enkulu yaseChina kukhuphuka kusuka kumathani ayizigidi ezingama-75.7 ngo-2020 kuya kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-183.9 ngo-2050.
I-Base Case iphakamisa ukuthi i-China isalokhu iyingqikithi yokuthenga kwamanye amazwe ama-resin amakhulu, kodwa isimo sayo sensalela yokungenisa ezweni sehla sisuka kumathani ayizigidi ezingama-27.4 ngo-2020 saya kumathani ayizigidi ezi-4.7 ngo-2050. Sigxila kuphela esikhathini esifika ku-2050.
Ngalesi sikhathi, ukuhlinzekwa kwama-resin kuqhubeka kakhulu njengoba kuhleliwe njengoba i-China ihlose ukwanelisa ukuzimela. Kepha ngeminyaka yawo-2030s, ukukhuliswa kwamandla kwehla emakethe yomhlaba wonke egcwele ngokweqile kanye nokukhuphuka kwezingxabano zohwebo.
Ngenxa yalokho, ngaphansi kwesimo se-Dire Demographics, ukukhiqizwa kungaphezu kokwanele futhi ekuqaleni kwawo-2030 i-China ithola ukuzimela kulawa ma-resin futhi ivela njengomkhiqizi ophelele wamathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.6 ngo-2035, amathani ayizigidi ezingu-7.1 ngo-2040, amathani ayizigidi ezingu-9.7 kanye nezigidi ezingu-50.65 kuya kwezingu-20.
Ngezibalo zabantu ezibucayi kanye nokuguquguquka kwezomnotho okuyinselele, ukuzimela kanye nesimo sokuthekelisa sensalela kufinyelelwa ngokushesha kodwa “kuyaphathwa” ukuze kudambise ukungezwani kwezohwebo.
Kunjalo, sibhekisise kancane i-demography, ikusasa lokuzala okuphansi nokunciphayo. "Izibalo zabantu ziyikusasa", njengoba kwasho isazi sefilosofi saseFrance u-Auguste Comte wekhulu le-19. Kodwa isiphetho asibekwa etsheni. Leli ikusasa elilodwa elingenzeka.
Kunamanye amakusasa angenzeka, okuhlanganisa lawo lapho amazinga enzalo alulama khona kanye negagasi elisha lezinto ezintsha zobuchwepheshe ezihlanganayo ukuze kuthuthukiswe umkhiqizo kanjalo nokukhula komnotho. Kodwa isimo esivezwe lapha singasiza izinkampani zamakhemikhali ukuthi zicabange ngokungaqiniseki ngendlela ehlelekile futhi zenze izinqumo ezithinta ikusasa lazo - ekugcineni zibhale indaba yazo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-05-2025
